OPEC and IEA divergence highlights assumption blackspots
Supply glut or supply deficit are both plausible outlooks, with tariffs and sanctions among the key risks that could swing the pendulum
OPEC and the IEA continue to offer divergent perspectives on oil supply and demand. For 2024, the demand differences rose to as much as 1.24m b/d in June and July, but the gap narrowed to 0.6m b/d at the start of the year. For 2025, the IEA sees a year-on-year demand increase of 1.05m b/d, but OPEC remains optimistic despite the possibility of US tariffs against several countries and similar reciprocal steps by other nations. The oil alliance estimate for a consumption increase in 2025 is 1.45m b/d. OPEC projects Chinese demand growth at 310,000b/d in 2025, but the IEA expects year-on-year demand growth in Asia’s largest consumer at 220,000b/d. Indian consumption will rise by 240,000b/d this
Also in this section
30 July 2025
Owing to social, political and geographical factors, Canadian LNG projects are a complex proposition versus competing facilities on the US Gulf of Mexico.
29 July 2025
The EU’s Russia sanctions could have far-reaching implications for India’s Vadinar-based refinery
29 July 2025
There is a good strategic case for China to sign a deal for gas supplies via the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, but Beijing’s concerns over over-dependency on a single supplier and desire to drive down the price make it relatively unlikely that a contract will be finalised this year.
29 July 2025
EU industry and politicians are pushing back against the bloc’s green agenda. Meanwhile, Brussels’ transatlantic trade deal with Washington could consolidate US energy dominance.
