OPEC and IEA divergence highlights assumption blackspots

Supply glut or supply deficit are both plausible outlooks, with tariffs and sanctions among the key risks that could swing the pendulum

OPEC and the IEA continue to offer divergent perspectives on oil supply and demand. For 2024, the demand differences rose to as much as 1.24m b/d in June and July, but the gap narrowed to 0.6m b/d at the start of the year. For 2025, the IEA sees a year-on-year demand increase of 1.05m b/d, but OPEC remains optimistic despite the possibility of US tariffs against several countries and similar reciprocal steps by other nations. The oil alliance estimate for a consumption increase in 2025 is 1.45m b/d. OPEC projects Chinese demand growth at 310,000b/d in 2025, but the IEA expects year-on-year demand growth in Asia’s largest consumer at 220,000b/d. Indian consumption will rise by 240,000b/d this