OPEC and IEA divergence highlights assumption blackspots
Supply glut or supply deficit are both plausible outlooks, with tariffs and sanctions among the key risks that could swing the pendulum
OPEC and the IEA continue to offer divergent perspectives on oil supply and demand. For 2024, the demand differences rose to as much as 1.24m b/d in June and July, but the gap narrowed to 0.6m b/d at the start of the year. For 2025, the IEA sees a year-on-year demand increase of 1.05m b/d, but OPEC remains optimistic despite the possibility of US tariffs against several countries and similar reciprocal steps by other nations. The oil alliance estimate for a consumption increase in 2025 is 1.45m b/d. OPEC projects Chinese demand growth at 310,000b/d in 2025, but the IEA expects year-on-year demand growth in Asia’s largest consumer at 220,000b/d. Indian consumption will rise by 240,000b/d this
Also in this section
6 February 2026
The long close relationship between key supplier Qatar and pivotal buyer Japan becomes even deeper following new landmark deal
6 February 2026
Partnerships across the LNG value chain have evolved over time, growing in both complexity and importance, according to panellists at LNG2026
6 February 2026
Nigeria's mega-refinery is still trying to solve many challenges, all while its owner talks up expansion
5 February 2026
While broadly supportive of EU efforts to tackle methane emissions, representatives of the gas industry warn it could deter supply contracting if timelines and compliance requirements are not made more pragmatic
