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The shadow fleet is the real chokepoint in 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
China’s new oil position
OPEC, upstream investors and refiners all face strategic shifts now the Asian behemoth is no longer the main engine of global oil demand growth
The AI industry’s coming dominance of oil and gas
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Canadian producers positioned to ride out the downcycle
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OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
OPEC+ set to strengthen its hand
The alliance looks to bolster market management credibility by bringing greater clarity and unity to output cuts and producer capacity later in 2026
Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
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Oil’s tanker transformation
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Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports
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UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei at the OPEC International Seminar in Vienna
Opec Markets
Ehsan ul-Haq
Paul Hickin,
Editor-in-chief
14 July 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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OPEC+’s extra barrels mostly made of paper

Robust demand and a limited supply of additional physical barrels from key OPEC+ producers has kept the oil market in a healthy price range

OPEC+ has added just 160,000b/d of oil to the market since it started unwinding its production cuts in April, according to Petroleum Economist estimates. This is far below its pledged increase of nearly 960,000b/d. However, global demand has remained unexpectedly resilient, with lower fuel prices and a weaker dollar boosting consumption, especially in developing economies. This sustained consumption growth is keeping prices buoyant above $65/bl, even amid broader economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Whether these price levels will pressure shale producers and OPEC+ quota-breakers into compliance remains uncertain. Despite uneven compliance across the OPEC+ bloc, heavyweights within

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