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Letter from the US: This crisis Is different
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
Middle East oil’s multi-step recovery plan
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
US continues gas infrastructure buildout
The US has used booming shale production to massively expand its LNG infrastructure, but Canadian developments have not fare so well while in South America consumption outstrips production
Canada’s oil and gas looks East
There is a clear push to bolster exports to Asia amid uncertainty around its North American neighbour, but there are limits to the benefits from the energy crisis
OPEC+ caught between a crisis and a surplus
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
The illusion of supply: Rethinking energy security when oil cannot move
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
OPEC+’s 11m b/d March production collapse
Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
Qatar’s Golden Pass dilemma
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
The demand destruction timebomb
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Opinion
Markets US
Philip K. Verleger
Denver
15 January 2026
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports

Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026

US President Donald Trump emphasised three key goals for his new administration during his 2024 election campaign: rebuilding domestic manufacturing, making the US an energy superpower, and bringing down consumer energy costs. These three goals are in conflict. The US cannot rebuild its manufacturing base and remain an energy superpower. It will take lower energy prices to expand the manufacturing base. While lower prices would benefit consumers—a key Trump goal—they would also depress energy production. The data and numerous economic studies make it clear that strong US energy exports have undermined and will continue to undermine efforts to boost US manufacturing. Experience shows it will

Also in this section
Letter from the US: This crisis Is different
Opinion
28 April 2026
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
Middle East oil’s multi-step recovery plan
28 April 2026
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
Decoding datacentre energy demand
28 April 2026
Datacentres will guzzle power at a ferocious rate, but the impact on wider energy markets will be far more complex than previously thought
Iraq’s pipeline dilemma
28 April 2026
The key energy player faces balancing regional routes, political complexities, and creating a clear strategic vision for energy security

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