The never-ending role of hydrocarbons: Part 1

Oil’s resilience and gas’ growth will continue to define the global energy mix into 2050, according to Petroleum Economist analysis, but that does not have to spell doom and gloom for sustainability

When you read your horoscope, do you chuckle at the absurdity of it, seize on the nuggets of information that ring true, or plan your life according to its warnings? Replace mystics with long-term forecasters and there are eerie similarities. When predictions for one year ahead are about as accurate as a broken clock, one wonders what value there is in stretching out those assumptions. But look across the outlooks from some of the top organisations and their inner workings, and you can start to separate ideological angles from data extrapolation and look to build a consensus that is more than the sum—and crass average—of its parts. Long-term forecasts carry more weight than being mere guesst