The French navy diverts a suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker to Marseille-Fos port
The shadow fleet is the real chokepoint in 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
For much of the past few years, oil markets have developed a kind of resilience to sanctions. Barrels are restricted, discounts widen and flows eventually re-route. Intermediaries change, paperwork evolves and crude continues to find a home. That assumption has shaped pricing behaviour since 2022 and explains why new sanctions often provoke only a brief reaction particularly post-implementation. As 2026 begins, that assumption is being tested. The constraint in the system is no longer the financial sanction, but the infrastructure that allows sanctioned trade to function. Physical interventions in the Atlantic Basin by Western security forces, refusal of entry into local waters and the clari
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