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IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
OPEC+ still showing restraint
Petroleum Economist analysis shows OPEC bringing back some barrels in May, but fewer than expected, while OPEC+ continues to see output fall
US shale closes the gap
Supply is gradually returning, but the market will remain tight into next year
US independents stick to the script
Shale producers are cautiously eyeing Opec+ before lifting capex while substantially trimming hedging
US majors target Permian cash cow
Lower 48 production in the Texas and New Mexico shale play is poised to generate a mountain of cash over the next half-decade
Uncertainty hangs over Permian permits
Output may be climbing fast, but producers are still waiting for clarity from the government on the future of federal drilling
Brent heads for $82/bl as Opec+ holds steady
The cartel dashes expectations it might boost production ahead of schedule
Letter from South America: Guyana and Suriname poised for change
The enormous exploration success of recent years leaves the South American neighbours at a crossroads
Guyana keeps the oil finds flowing
Latin America’s latest crude producer again proves its status as a world-class petroleum province
Covid-19 Opec Guyana Permian
Charles Waine
19 March 2020
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US upstream companies feel the strain

Economic uncertainty forces E&Ps to significantly revise down their capital budgets

The Covid-19 outbreak seemed little more than another temporary shock to long-term rangebound energy markets barely a month ago. China appeared to have contained a largely localised phenomenon, and observers were estimating how long it would take Asian demand to recover. Oil producers stuck firmly to their 2020 production guidance.  But events have changed radically. Europe is now the epicentre of a global emergency that could last months and test the healthcare capabilities of governments throughout the world. The associated collapse in global energy demand—and uncertainty how and when supply will respond in the wake of Opec+ disarray—have shocked commodity markets. “The weak global economy

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IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
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