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Outlook 2026: US onshore holds steady at sluggish rate as shale stagnates
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A refinery in British Columbia
Refining Brazil Bolivia Canada Colombia Chile Ecuador Guyana Mexico Panama US
Lee Nichols,
Vice-president, content,
Gulf Energy Information
4 March 2025
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Hydrocarbon Processing Refining Databook 2025: Americas

The US and Canada are boosting capacity builds for renewable diesel and biofuels, while Central and South American countries are investing heavily to upgrade and expand their domestic refining sectors

At 18.4m b/d, the US has the second-largest refining capacity in the world. Two primary refining trends—related to capex—are ongoing in the region: increased capacity builds for renewable diesel and increased capacity builds for biofuel production, primarily sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). US production of SAF increased from 2,000b/d to nearly 30,000b/d in 2024. Several additional SAF projects are under development. These projects are the result of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard, and federal and state tax credits and incentives. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed in 2022, calls for US SAF production to reach 3b gal/yr by 2030 and up to 35b gal/yr

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Outlook 2026: US onshore holds steady at sluggish rate as shale stagnates
Outlook 2026
15 December 2025
As contradictory as it might seem, US oil output has continued to grow over the last several years, even as drilling in the shale plays has maintained a slow decline. This improbable dichotomy is a testimony to the industry’s technological prowess

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