Outlook Live: Trouble brews for US shale

Global energy demand will recover as the pandemic recedes, but production in the Lower 48 may already have reached its apogee

US onshore shale may have already hit peak production and could struggle to ever match pre-pandemic growth levels, according to a panel of experts on a PE Live webcast late last week. “I think the expectation is that US onshore production will remain flat, perhaps grow slightly, and that is mainly a function of access to capital and what investors want,” says Bobby Tudor, chairman at US bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Over the past year, the EIA recorded a 1.43mn bl/d plunge in Lower 48 oil production—at its worst sinking to 8mn bl/d—as the pandemic triggered demand destruction and sunk global commodity prices. Since the worst of the economic lockdown ended in May, US production has gr