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Mexico must overhaul its NOC
Crucial structural reforms and change in operating philosophy are needed to arrest PEMEX’s ongoing decline and restore oil production growth
Mexico’s upstream Pemex gamble
The government refuses to expand E&P access despite the NOC’s high debt pile, falling crude output and growing gas import dependence
Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Pemex scrambles to plug the gap
The NOC’s dire financial situation and maturing fields have left the authorities with little choice but to reduce crude expectations
Hydrocarbon Processing Refining Databook 2025: Americas
The US and Canada are boosting capacity builds for renewable diesel and biofuels, while Central and South American countries are investing heavily to upgrade and expand their domestic refining sectors
Latin America’s evolving crude outlook
New supply from Argentina, Brazil and Guyana is rich in middle distillates, but optimism in terms of volume growth remains tempered by regulatory and technical risks as well as price volatility
Mexico’s energy ambitions weigh heavily on Pemex
The government’s resource nationalism is aggravating the NOC’s debt position and could yet worsen if also tasked with the decarbonisation shift
Mexico’s new president faces fiscal crunch
While greater focus on decarbonisation is likely, economic pressures and huge debt burden could squeeze energy policy ambitions
Mexico’s election could evolve oil nationalism
Upcoming elections are likely to deliver a win for the party of president Andres Lopez Obrador, but analysts differ over to what degree his successor will stick to his energy policies
Mexico’s fledgling LNG export industry faces growth challenges
While developers are making progress, infrastructure, regulatory and political uncertainties risk stunting opportunities
The government has stabilised falling production but has a long way to go to reach the 2.06mn bl/d target set for 2024
Mexico Pemex
Charles Waine
23 November 2021
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Pemex running out of time

The state-controlled heavyweight may miss its 2021 upstream target despite downgrading original guidance

Mexican NOC Pemex may have slashed its year-end upstream production target to 1.8mn bl/d, but it still faces an upward battle to meet the revised goal. The firm produced 1.75mn bl/d over the most recent quarter—up by only 2.7pc on Q2 and 11pc below its original year-end target. “Pemex had originally targeted an average 1.94mn bl/d of liquids production for 2021,” says Fernando Tamayo, a Latin America research analyst at upstream consultancy Welligence Energy Analytics. “However, they have fallen well short, with production through September 2021 averaging 1.73mn bl/d.”  The company needs to find another 50,000bl/d before the end of the year to meet the new target, but Tamayo believes it will

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