Mideast upstream long-term outlooks diverge

The region’s producers have their own specific goals and face drastically different challenges

This year will see global upstream oil and gas field development capex rise by 11pc year-on-year, to around $475bn, a significant improvement from 2020’s lows, according to Renaissance Energy’s forecast. The aggregate numbers, however, obscure significant variation. Much of this year’s increase in capex—when adjusted for inflation—is more modest. With questions looming around whether the global oil industry is underinvesting and the challenge of financing upstream projects, how is the Middle East positioned for the decade ahead? Despite Opec+ grabbing headlines last year for its nominal 2mn bl/d cut in production—which has been in place since November 2022—the highlight of the year was the s