Clear shift in the types of investment opportunity in the UK North Sea
Time running out for UK North Sea
Smaller projects provide opportunities, but basin maturity and policy shifts amid political uncertainty signal a significant decline by the end of the decade
The UK North Sea has been battered and bruised. First by Covid, then by environmentalists, and finally by a traditionally supportive Conservative government bringing in the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) to 2028—and, just this March, announcing an extension to 2029. The decision to approve drilling at the $3.8b Rosebank project in the West of Shetland gave a confidence boost to the fragile UK North Sea oil sector towards the latter half of 2023. Containing around 300m bl of oil and owned by Norway’s Equinor and the UK’s Ithaca Energy, it may be one of the last large undeveloped discoveries in UK waters. But this should be viewed as a stay of execution rather than any last hurrah. “Post-Rosebank,
Also in this section
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
2 March 2026
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
