Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Pemex CEO Victor Rodriguez at an event for the 87th anniversary of the NOC’s founding
Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Mexico’s upstream outlook is not looking bright. Halfway into 2025, and against a backdrop of widening political violence, crude projections have already taken a tumble as the authorities contend with declining production, high debt and operational problems. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum originally set a 2025 domestic target of 1.8m b/d, but this was soon downgraded to 1.762m b/d. By April, output had slumped to 1.369m b/d. The most recent report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission from state oil and gas firm Pemex projects 1.58m b/d for the year. “The original projection of 1.8m bl/d for 2025 was always seen as optimistic, especially since the NOC last reached that level back
Also in this section
24 December 2025
As activity in the US Gulf has stagnated at a lower level, the government is taking steps to encourage fresh exploration and bolster field development work
23 December 2025
The new government has brought stability and security to the country, with the door now open to international investment
23 December 2025
A third wave of LNG supply is coming, and with it a likely oversupply of the fuel by 2028
22 December 2025
Weakening climate resolve in the developed world and rapidly growing demand in developing countries means peak oil is still a long way away
