Muted winter LNG outlook for NE Asia

Seasonal temperatures will prove critical, but the LNG demand prospects for China, Japan and South Korea are currently soft

China is set to lead gas demand growth in Northeast Asia this winter amid signs the region’s biggest economy is bottoming out, although this is unlikely to mean a big jump in LNG imports as the country taps other sources of supply. And at the same time, more nuclear availability is expected to weigh on seasonal demand in Japan and South Korea. Recent green shoots in China’s economy suggest growth is stabilising, which may help domestic gas demand maintain momentum. China’s GDP beat predictions in Q3, with year-on-year growth of 4.9%, lifting growth for the first nine months of 2023 to 5.2%—ahead of Beijing’s official target of c.5%. Chinese gas demand has been strengthening since the spring,