Australia’s changing gas risks

Australia’s East Coast Gas projections for a supply shortfall have been pushed further out, but the challenge to meet evolving gas demand and the shifting assumptions around the fundamentals remain just as stark

Australia’s East Coast gas market was expected to face supply shortages this year. That was according to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 2024 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), which projected peak-day constraints from 2025 and seasonal shortfalls from 2026. AEMO’s 2025 GSOO, however, has delayed those shortfalls until 2028 in what is the latest in a string of revisions that, depending on the interpreter, either show a system adapting or a threat overstated. In July 2024, this publication reported that AEMO’s projections showed the East Coast gas market as standing on a precipice. Less than a year later, the edge has shifted. But rather than being a simple revision, this c