How much Iranian oil will be lost if Trump scraps the JCPOA?
The range of estimates is wide and the White House isn’t giving much thought to what happens next
President Donald Trump will probably ditch the Iran nuclear deal on 12 May—on that, most everyone seems to agree. But consensus over the impact on oil supply is lacking. More than 1m barrels a day of supply could be lost over the next 18 months. Worse still, the White House might not really have a plan. At stake are US sanctions waivers that have kept a renewed embargo at bay. Trump extended these waivers in January but said he wouldn't renew them again in May unless the European Union and Congress fix parts of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that he doesn't like. The UK, France and Germany, the so-called E3, want to keep the deal running, and so have been trying to find some
Also in this section
5 August 2025
After failed attempts to find a buyer for its stake in Russia’s largest oil producer, BP may be able to avoid the harsh treatment meted out to ExxonMobil and Shell when they exited—and could even restart operations if geopolitical conditions improve
1 August 2025
A number of companies have filed arbitration claims against Gazprom over non-deliveries of contracted gas or other matters—and won. The next step is to collect the award, but this is no easy task
1 August 2025
Europe’s refining sector is desperately trying to adapt to a shifting global energy landscape and nowhere is this more apparent than in its largest economy
1 August 2025
The Middle East natural gas playbook is being rewritten. The fuel source offers the region a pathway to a cleaner, sustainable and affordable means of local power, to fasttrack economic development and as a lucrative opportunity to better monetise its energy resources.
