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Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world
IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
US, Russia and China circle the Arctic
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
Israel-Iran war imperils Egypt’s energy supply
Egypt’s government was already preparing for potential energy shortages this summer, and the loss of Israeli gas supply has made things worse
The oil risk premium fable
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
Iraq seeks alternatives to Iranian gas
The country is facing energy shortfalls this summer amid reduced Iranian gas imports and difficulties leasing an FSRU
OPEC+ still showing restraint
Petroleum Economist analysis shows OPEC bringing back some barrels in May, but fewer than expected, while OPEC+ continues to see output fall
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
Europe’s hard choices on gas security
EU half measures over storage regulation, geopolitical risks to ending Russian gas, power outage questions and China’s LNG resale leverage make for a challenging path ahead.
Mass destruction: the Syrian army gradually clawed back key territory from rebels
Opec Iran Russia Saudi Arabia Syria Yemen Turkey
13 December 2018
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Middle East tensions rumbled on in 2018

Oil prices recovered, but old conflicts remained unresolved

The fate of Middle East oil producers in 2018—and producers elsewhere in the world—remained largely in the hands of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Despite rumours of differences in strategy and objectives, the two giants—producing around 40pc of global output—stuck to their guns and maintained production cuts agreed the previous year. It became increasingly clear that the muscle to influence oil markets had passed from Opec to the Saudi-Russian partnership. Iran, once a major energy force to match Saudi Arabia, was forced out of the running by US sanctions which, in November, were extended to the energy sector. Fear of global supply shortages resulting from an anticipated dip in Iranian oil export

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