Uneasy neighbours
Strains within the GCC and shifting external alliances will make for an unsettled year
The Gulf Cooperation Council began 2017 looking at the new US administration with hope, albeit—as in other parts of the world—with varying expectations. Obama's approach to the GCC and broader region was seen by GCC countries as misaligned with its interests. The Gulf states looked at Obama's support for Arab Spring protests; his engagement with Iran over its nuclear programme; and his administration's lack of action in Libya, Syria and Yemen as symptoms of America's dwindling interest and engagement in the region, and, at times, of policies perceived as opposed to some of the GCC states' interests. The incoming Trump administration attempted a reset by recasting American priorities in the r
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The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
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With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
2 March 2026
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
