Dangerous dance in the Gulf

The US and Iran have thus far reacted to a string of provocative moves more in word than deed, but the potential for miscalculation is high

The summer has passed without any of the direct military clashes in the Gulf between US and Iranian forces that many had feared. But the autumn holds scant prospect of an early resolution of the crisis, and thus for reducing the risk of even an accidental misstep into war. And two external factors risk further ratcheting up the tension—the impact of the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) withdrawal from the battle against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen; and the 2020 US presidential election. Any number of incidents over the past few months could have triggered a military confrontation in the Gulf. President Donald Trump in June came close to ordering airstrikes against Iranian targets in retaliat