The US-China trade war may escalate to energy
A trade reconciliation between Washington and Beijing may come too late for the US oil and gas industry
If China's leadership can draw one lesson from 2019, it is that there are risks to relying on other nations. US export bans on technological components to ZTE and Huawei raised questions about the wisdom of relying on the US for critical inputs to the economy. While the focus has so far been on technology it is certainly possible that the US could extend this to energy, which is similarly vital to the functioning of the Chinese economy. While China has little or no direct exposure to US energy exports, it does not mean that China is immune to US policy. The recent US blacklisting of dozens of tankers operated by Cosco has resulted not only in a spike in very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates
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The quick, unified and decisive strategy to return all the barrels from the hefty tranche of cuts from the eight producers involved in voluntary curbs signals a shift and sets the tone for the path ahead
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Without US backing, the EU’s newest sanctions package against Russia—though not painless—is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s oil and gas revenues or its broader economy
