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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Qatar’s Golden Pass dilemma
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Letter from the US: The oil market abyss
The overlooked oil supply issue is that even after the Strait of Hormuz opens, barrels won’t readily return
Hormuz crisis delivers tailwinds for US LNG
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Energy dominance as diplomatic leverage
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
Trump’s gasoline price pledge paradox
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
US Iran
James M. Lindsay
24 November 2020
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Iran backs Biden into a corner

Rejoining the nuclear deal might be easier said than done

Campaigning before an election highlights what presidential candidates say they will do. Governing, by contrast, showcases what they can actually get done. When it comes to Iran policy, President-elect Joe Biden is about to discover the yawning gap between those two realities. Biden called President Donald Trump’s ‘maximum-pressure’ campaign against Iran a “dangerous failure.” Since Trump walked away from the 2015 nuclear deal and imposed ever-tougher sanctions, Iran has 12 times the amount of low-enriched uranium it had when Barack Obama left office. As a result, the ‘breakout time’ for an Iranian nuclear weapon has dwindled from a year to a matter of months. Biden proposes to return to som

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