IEA cries wolf again

The agency may be overestimating demand and lowballing Opec supply to foresee a tighter market than will materialise

The IEA suggests in Oil 2021, its latest medium-term outlook, that there may be no return to normal for the world oil market in the post-Covid era. But it then appears to contradict its thesis in its own demand projections. Global oil demand is, admittedly, rebounding after an unprecedented collapse in 2020. But rapid changes in behaviour caused by the pandemic, including new working-from-home models and cuts to business and leisure travel—as well as accelerated commitments by governments towards decarbonising their economies—“have caused a dramatic downward shift in expectations for oil demand over the next six years”, while possibly pushing forward the timeline for peak oil demand. This,