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Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world
Israel-Iran war imperils Egypt’s energy supply
Egypt’s government was already preparing for potential energy shortages this summer, and the loss of Israeli gas supply has made things worse
The oil risk premium fable
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
Iraq seeks alternatives to Iranian gas
The country is facing energy shortfalls this summer amid reduced Iranian gas imports and difficulties leasing an FSRU
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
Letter from Iran: High-stakes nuclear diplomacy
Iran’s oil is caught in the crosshairs of support from China and Russia and US maximum pressure, with options becoming more and more limited
Letter from Iran: US sanctions cut off crude supply line
Deliveries to China decline by around 1m b/d from move to curb crude exports to Shandong port, putting Iran under further economic pressure
Assad’s downfall is bad news for Iran
The collapse of the Syrian dictator’s regime will weaken Tehran in profound ways both economically and geopolitically
Oil cannot escape Mideast conflict forever
Markets have seen no material disruption from the war so far, but as the fighting goes on it is a matter of when, not if
IOCs undeterred by Middle East conflict
Companies operating offshore assets in the region are unlikely to halt development plans for now, even as hostilities intensify
A banner supporting Ebrahim Raisi in Iran
Iran
Peter Ramsay
1 July 2021
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Iran production could return ‘within two months’

A likely, albeit not certain, revival of the JCPOA agreement could see a swift rebound in Iranian barrels, says veteran analyst

The need for Iranian president-elect Ebrahim Raisi to legitimise his rule through economic progress, after record low turnout statistics, should lead to grudging support for a new agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Bijan Khajehpour, senior associate at political risk consultancy Menas Associates and editor of its Iran Strategic Focus, told an end-of-May webinar. And the restoration of JCPOA should be followed by a material return of Iranian crude and products exports within a matter of weeks. “With sanctions, Iran has actually managed to export c.1mn bl/d of crude and condensate and a growing amount of petroleum products. Putting all of them together, exports are 1-

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