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Shifting sands alter balance of power in Middle East
The region’s political situation and internal relationships are changing amid the growing influence of Russia and China
Iran’s crude increases raise US, OPEC+ questions
A tight sour oil market and a reluctance by Washington to take a hard line could allow the OPEC producer to keep testing boundaries, but for how long?
Letter from Iran: Tehran's dreams and Moscow's deceptions
Russia is making a show of support for Iran as the two nations strengthen their ties, but the promised investment may never materialise
Saudi-Iran deal first step to boosting regional oil security prospects
But there is less optimism on additional Iranian exports, and many near-term risks remain
Russia sanctions to create oil market slowburn
Venezuela and Iran offer clues to potential effectiveness of the measures
Russia offers Middle East a card in US game
Opec+ cut agreement suggests Moscow’s Middle Eastern stock remains high
Russian barrels continue to impact Iranian trade
The sanctioned countries are competing in a limited illicit market
Tehran makes a virtue of necessity
Iran aims to channel the fruits of accelerating upstream oil development into refining and petchems integration
Iran casts shadow over Kurdish gas aspirations
The Kurdistan region is facing political and military challenges as efforts to appoint a government in Baghdad descend further into chaos
Iran unlikely to prove a gas saviour
Any hopes that the Mideast Gulf state could increase production and exports to help ease the global shortfall are misplaced
A banner supporting Ebrahim Raisi in Iran
Iran
Peter Ramsay
1 July 2021
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Iran production could return ‘within two months’

A likely, albeit not certain, revival of the JCPOA agreement could see a swift rebound in Iranian barrels, says veteran analyst

The need for Iranian president-elect Ebrahim Raisi to legitimise his rule through economic progress, after record low turnout statistics, should lead to grudging support for a new agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Bijan Khajehpour, senior associate at political risk consultancy Menas Associates and editor of its Iran Strategic Focus, told an end-of-May webinar. And the restoration of JCPOA should be followed by a material return of Iranian crude and products exports within a matter of weeks. “With sanctions, Iran has actually managed to export c.1mn bl/d of crude and condensate and a growing amount of petroleum products. Putting all of them together, exports are 1-

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