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Opinion
Opec IEA China
Shi Weijun
Shanghai
30 January 2023
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Letter from China: Rebounding demand meets economic headwinds

Opec+ and the IEA have both revised up 2023 forecasts for Chinese oil demand in recent weeks

The swift recovery in China’s urban commuter traffic and supply-chain logistics after Beijing abandoned pandemic restrictions two months ago has raised hopes of a strong economic rebound. But the real impact is unlikely to be seen for some time yet. China’s dramatic reopening has been rapid but bumpy, with infections still sweeping the nation. But this year’s week-long Lunar New Year public holiday—which began on 23 January—is unique in that vast swathes of the population are no longer under Covid travel restrictions or lockdowns for the first time since the pandemic began. This relative freedom—combined with major Chinese cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, emerging from peak infections

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The administration is pushing for deregulation and streamline permitting for natural gas, while tightening requirements and stripping away subsidies from renewables
OPEC+ off-target in July
8 August 2025
The producers’ group missed its output increase target for the month and may soon face a critical test of its strategy
The great OPEC+ reset
7 August 2025
The quick, unified and decisive strategy to return all the barrels from the hefty tranche of cuts from the eight producers involved in voluntary curbs signals a shift and sets the tone for the path ahead
Latest EU sanctions largely toothless
7 August 2025
Without US backing, the EU’s newest sanctions package against Russia—though not painless—is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s oil and gas revenues or its broader economy

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