Energy markets face bifurcation point as US election looms
Either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will enter the White House as president in January 2025, and the gulf between their energy and climate policy agendas will have global implications
When Donald Trump was inaugurated as president of the US in January 2017, he quickly set about undoing much of what had been achieved on energy and climate policy during Barack Obama’s two terms in office. In June 2017, Trump announced the US would cease all participation in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change—despite the country having been a leader in securing that agreement—beginning a four-year exit process and weakening international resolve to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Also in 2017, Trump signed an executive order requiring the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review efforts to reduce emissions from electricity generation in the US under the Clean
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The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
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With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
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The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis






