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A bigger and longer crisis
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
How Russia gains from the Hormuz supply shock
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
Hormuz crisis delivers tailwinds for US LNG
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
Letter from Dubai: A safe haven under fire
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
Energy dominance as diplomatic leverage
Energy sanctions are becoming an increasingly prominent tool of US foreign policy, with the country’s growth in oil and gas production allowing it to impose pressure on rivals without jeopardising its own energy security or that of its allies, argues Matthew McManus, a visiting fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics
Trump’s gasoline price pledge paradox
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
Explainer: Fujairah on high alert
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Letter from Asia: The nuanced India-Russia oil picture
The South Asian consumer’s next move could tighten the Middle East oil market overnight
Trump has said the Russia-Ukraine war must end in 50 days or else he will impose secondary sanctions on Russia
Politics Russia US
Tim Crawford
24 July 2025
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Trump’s Russia threat rings hollow

The reaction to proposed sanctions on Russian oil buyers has been muted, suggesting trader fatigue with Trump’s frequent bold and erratic threats

US President Donald Trump threatened on 15 July to impose secondary sanctions on any country purchasing Russian oil within 50 days unless a peace deal is reached to end the conflict in Ukraine, potentially impacting up to 4.7m b/d of global oil supply. In a less chaotic era of US foreign policy, such an announcement might have triggered a sharp reaction in oil markets, given it affects nearly 5% of global supply. The threat coincided with the Trump administration’s announcement of new weapons deliveries to Ukraine on the same day, marking a significant policy shift and highlighting the president’s apparent growing frustration with the Kremlin over stalled peace negotiations.  Instead, the ma

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