Worst is over for US refining

Wave of recent refinery closures and competitive edge make consolidation increasingly less likely

The US oil refining industry has lost almost 900,000bl/d of capacity since hitting an all-time high of 19mn bl/d in the second quarter of 2020 (see Fig. 1). But, while the global competition will continue to intensify, the US might have borne its greatest pain. China, India and some Middle Eastern countries continue to bring on millions of barrels of new refining capacity, with almost another 5mn bl/d expected by the end of 2025. These new mega-refineries tend to be integrated with petrochemical plants to make them even more competitive. And global oil consumption, already retarded by the Covid-19 pandemic, is increasingly at risk—especially in advanced economies—due to increasing efforts to