US gasoline myth masks bloated oil stocks
Grim outlook for refining margins as high interest rates blunt gasoline consumption
A myth abounds that the summer fuel consumption cycle depends on the American family’s road trips. This is a fable this economist has often tried to dispel. Here, our goal is to slay it once and for all. The myth exists because the summer vacation cycle coincides with another one: the construction cycle. Families take trips in summer because the kids are out of school and the weather is good, but contractors also take advantage of warm weather. Housing construction surges in summer because the daylight lasts longer. Construction also ramps up because it is easier and less expensive to build in warm weather. The data reveal a close link between fuel consumption and the construction cycle. In
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