Fresh capacity to shift global refining in 2024

Even diesel cracks may be poised to narrow, although other factors—such as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea—could buck the structural trends

Global refining is set to become a more crowded and competitive space in 2024 as capacity continues to ramp up at a number of new facilities. Africa’s largest refinery has already started operations, while the Mideast Gulf continues to cement its new position as a global refining hub. Pressure is mounting on Europe’s ageing refineries as a result. Much like other energy markets, the downstream sector continues to feel the effects of re-rerouted Russian trade and ongoing sanctions. And, as ever with refined products, the supply-demand outlook is different for each individual commodity, partly due to changes in underlying crude feedstock flows. Refinery ramp-ups will be a “huge story this year