Can oil's rally last?
Physical tightness and geopolitics suggest so. But price threats are lurking
Everything looks bullish right now. Physical markets are tight. Demand is stronger than expected—Gulf Opec producers had thought Q4 would be much weaker. OECD stocks continue to fall. Oil is being drained from floating and onshore storage. The excess inventory is now mainly in the US, from which exports are soaring. The futures curve, in backwardation over the next six months, reflects the underlying shift in the fundamentals. The market seems to expect Opec to extend its cuts beyond the end of Q1 until end-2018. Geopolitics is the bull-shaped figurine on top of the cake. Some supply interruptions have already occurred: exports from northern Iraq have been cut several times in recent weeks a
Also in this section
2 April 2026
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
2 April 2026
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
