Can oil's rally last?
Physical tightness and geopolitics suggest so. But price threats are lurking
Everything looks bullish right now. Physical markets are tight. Demand is stronger than expected—Gulf Opec producers had thought Q4 would be much weaker. OECD stocks continue to fall. Oil is being drained from floating and onshore storage. The excess inventory is now mainly in the US, from which exports are soaring. The futures curve, in backwardation over the next six months, reflects the underlying shift in the fundamentals. The market seems to expect Opec to extend its cuts beyond the end of Q1 until end-2018. Geopolitics is the bull-shaped figurine on top of the cake. Some supply interruptions have already occurred: exports from northern Iraq have been cut several times in recent weeks a
Also in this section
20 February 2026
The country is pushing to increase production and expand key projects despite challenges including OPEC+ discipline and the limitations of its export infrastructure
20 February 2026
Europe has transformed into a global LNG demand powerhouse over the last few years, with the fuel continuing to play a key role in safeguarding the continent’s energy security, Carsten Poppinga, chief commercial officer at Uniper, tells Petroleum Economist
20 February 2026
Sempra Infrastructure’s vice president for marketing and commercial development, Carlos de la Vega, outlines progress across the company’s US Gulf Coast and Mexico Pacific Coast LNG portfolio, including construction at Port Arthur LNG, continued strong performance at Cameron LNG and development of ECA LNG
19 February 2026
US LNG exporter Cheniere Energy has grown its business rapidly since exporting its first cargo a decade ago. But Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin tells Petroleum Economist that, as in the past, the company’s future expansion plans are anchored by high levels of contracted offtake, supporting predictable returns on investment
