Can oil's rally last?
Physical tightness and geopolitics suggest so. But price threats are lurking
Everything looks bullish right now. Physical markets are tight. Demand is stronger than expected—Gulf Opec producers had thought Q4 would be much weaker. OECD stocks continue to fall. Oil is being drained from floating and onshore storage. The excess inventory is now mainly in the US, from which exports are soaring. The futures curve, in backwardation over the next six months, reflects the underlying shift in the fundamentals. The market seems to expect Opec to extend its cuts beyond the end of Q1 until end-2018. Geopolitics is the bull-shaped figurine on top of the cake. Some supply interruptions have already occurred: exports from northern Iraq have been cut several times in recent weeks a
Also in this section
8 December 2025
The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries
5 December 2025
Mistaken assumptions around an oil bull run that never happened are a warning over the talk of a supply glut
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
