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Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world
IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
Israel-Iran war imperils Egypt’s energy supply
Egypt’s government was already preparing for potential energy shortages this summer, and the loss of Israeli gas supply has made things worse
The oil risk premium fable
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
Iraq seeks alternatives to Iranian gas
The country is facing energy shortfalls this summer amid reduced Iranian gas imports and difficulties leasing an FSRU
OPEC+ still showing restraint
Petroleum Economist analysis shows OPEC bringing back some barrels in May, but fewer than expected, while OPEC+ continues to see output fall
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
OPEC+ keeps more barrels off market in April
A fall in Venezuelan output drives overall production lower, as Saudi Arabia starts to slowly bring more crude to the market
OPEC compliance improves amid market share threat
The surprise decision to bring on extra supply has coincided with better quota conformity from laggards in the group, Petroleum Economist analysis shows
Iran Opec
Robin M Mills
23 January 2017
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Growth hiatus

The Opec deal lets Iran increase output. It’s unlikely to breach that limit … for now

Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who died on 8 January at the age of 82, was frustrated by US sanctions when he tried to entice ConocoPhillips to his country. Now the administration of his successor and protégé, Hassan Rouhani, is treading a tricky path between new politics abroad, elections at home, sanctions, foreign oil companies and Opec. Iran has long had the goal of raising oil production significantly, in line with its reserves and its historical importance within Opec. For many years the group's clear second-largest producer, it has now fallen well behind Iraq into third place. Its oil production target is 5.8m b/d by 2021, of which about 4.8m b/d would be crude oil. This s

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