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Opec and non-Opec agree a rollover, with caveats

Cuts extended to end-2018, but with a built-in escape hatch—and an implicit threat to other producers

Saudi Arabia got what it came for in Vienna on 30 November—a nine-month extension to the cuts that would otherwise have expired in Q2 2018. It forced Libya and Nigeria to accept a cap on output. The revised deal will start from 1 January 2018 and remains a total removal of 1.8m b/d of supply from Opec and non-Opec. It secures Moscow's cooperation again, dispelling for another few months the doubts that had surfaced about Russia's commitment. "Supply is going to be fully adhered to," said Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih in the press conference after the meeting. "We won't expect the surprises, as we saw in 2017." Asked if the kingdom would be prepared to cut more deeply in 2018 to speed t

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