The global oil-demand growth forecast for 2017 depends on a bumper Q4

Either Q1-Q4 crude consumption will rise at its fastest pace since 2010, or the data are very wrong

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest monthly market report is a sobering read for anyone thinking the market was speeding towards supply-demand balance. OECD stocks rose again in April and are now 292m barrels above the five-year average. That metric is important: Saudi Arabia is using it to judge the effectiveness of Opec's cuts. Production is obviously a culprit. The price rise that followed Opec's decision to start holding back supply last November put rockets under US supply. The Energy Information Administration, part of the US government, expects output from the country's major shale formations to reach 5.48m barrels a day in July, its highest-ever level. Globally, the IEA sa