What will Libya do?
The country's output is a wildcard that could ruin Opec's best-laid plans
Libyan oil production has tripled since September, when the Tobruk government's forces captured key oil ports in the Sirte basin. Exempt from the Opec cuts agreed in November, Libya could add much more supply in the coming months-but growth will depend on the country's civil conflict. Further disruptions are possible too. Output in early January was around 0.7m barrels a day, compared with just 290,000 b/d in August. The sharp rise was possible only after the Libyan National Army (LNA) ousted a militia from the key Sirte basin oil ports of Es-Sider (capacity 447,000 b/d), Ras Lanuf (220,000 b/d) and Zueitina (200,000 b/d) and turned over the facilities to National Oil Company (NOC). Mustafa
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
