False dawn for oil
EVs, fuel-economy standards and perceptions of supply abundance are not about to end oil-market volatility
Oil industry leaders, investors and government officials contemplating medium-term (say five-year-forecast) oil prices should be wary of the words "new normal". Consensus sees shale and electric vehicles (EVs) indefinitely penning crude oil prices in the $40-$60 range that has held since early 2015, with the exception of a single sharp decline below $30 in early 2016. We contend that the oil market remains firmly in a "boom-bust" era, characterised by large structural imbalances, and the absence of an effective swing producer, with no end in sight. Oil's recent relatively tight range is no more a new normal than the prior "new normal" interlude around $100 was from 2010-13. Medium term, expe
Also in this section
24 October 2024
Producers in the region see significant gains to be made by boosting output using the infrastructure already in place
23 October 2024
Markets have seen no material disruption from the war so far, but as the fighting goes on it is a matter of when, not if
23 October 2024
Majors in the region are pushing boundaries and could see significant upside, but longer-term risks remain
22 October 2024
Angola is unlikely to meet the official timeline for an IPO of state-owned oil giant Sonangol in 2026