The oil market has a forecasting problem
Predicting oil production growth is a perilous task at best. Surging US oil output isn’t helping
Back in November, when Opec's ministers sat down in Vienna to assess the market and plot their strategy to rebalance supply and demand, their data brought good news. Non-Opec supply in 2018 would rise by just 870,000 barrels a day, said the monthly oil-market report from the group's secretariat, but global consumption would increase by 1.53m b/d. Demand for Opec's own oil would reach 33.4m b/d in 2018—almost 800,000 b/d more than the group was producing. Another heave on the cuts would clear the stock overhang and bring supply and demand into balance. Three months of surging tight oil output later and the outlook, for Opec and the market, has changed. So, once again, have the data—and the re
Also in this section
6 February 2026
The long close relationship between key supplier Qatar and pivotal buyer Japan becomes even deeper following new landmark deal
6 February 2026
Partnerships across the LNG value chain have evolved over time, growing in both complexity and importance, according to panellists at LNG2026
6 February 2026
Nigeria's mega-refinery is still trying to solve many challenges, all while its owner talks up expansion
5 February 2026
While broadly supportive of EU efforts to tackle methane emissions, representatives of the gas industry warn it could deter supply contracting if timelines and compliance requirements are not made more pragmatic
