Related Articles
Forward article link
Share PDF with colleagues

The oil market has a forecasting problem

Predicting oil production growth is a perilous task at best. Surging US oil output isn’t helping

Back in November, when Opec's ministers sat down in Vienna to assess the market and plot their strategy to rebalance supply and demand, their data brought good news. Non-Opec supply in 2018 would rise by just 870,000 barrels a day, said the monthly oil-market report from the group's secretariat, but global consumption would increase by 1.53m b/d. Demand for Opec's own oil would reach 33.4m b/d in 2018—almost 800,000 b/d more than the group was producing. Another heave on the cuts would clear the stock overhang and bring supply and demand into balance. Three months of surging tight oil output later and the outlook, for Opec and the market, has changed. So, once again, have the data—and the r



{{ error }}
{{ comment.comment.Name }} • {{ comment.timeAgo }}
{{ comment.comment.Text }}
Also in this section
BP’s Angolan JV could provide future template
3 August 2021
The major’s pooling of non-core resources with Italy’s Eni may be a model moving forward
Book review: Leftist history of the UK oil industry offers wider appeal
3 August 2021
It is easy to identify the sympathies of the authors. But that does not diminish the vivacity of the tale they have to tell
Letter from China: Covid resurgence compounds economic concerns
3 August 2021
China’s economy faces headwinds that go beyond than the arrival of the Delta variant
Sign Up For Our Newsletter
Project Data
PE Store
Social Links
Social Feeds
Featured Video