Tight oil's surge poses a familiar dilemma for Opec
The rebalancing effort is on shaky ground. To keep cutting is a problem but to stop might be just as bad
American tight oil growth has surprised Opec again. The group's own forecasts for non-Opec supply have been well short of the reality. When Opec's secretariat publishes its market report next week expect another upgrade. But a change of policy is unlikely. Each option is fraught. The latest forecast, from February, predicted non-Opec supply would rise by 1.4m barrels a day in 2018. It was wishful thinking. The Energy Information Administration says US supply on its own will rise by that much, to say nothing of Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and others. In Houston for CERAWeek, the International Energy Agency's chief Fatih Birol said non-Opec would meet most of the world's extra demand needs over
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
