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Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world
IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
Israel-Iran war imperils Egypt’s energy supply
Egypt’s government was already preparing for potential energy shortages this summer, and the loss of Israeli gas supply has made things worse
The oil risk premium fable
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
Iraq seeks alternatives to Iranian gas
The country is facing energy shortfalls this summer amid reduced Iranian gas imports and difficulties leasing an FSRU
OPEC+ still showing restraint
Petroleum Economist analysis shows OPEC bringing back some barrels in May, but fewer than expected, while OPEC+ continues to see output fall
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
OPEC++, the sequel, has arrived
It is time to acknowledge that the US-Saudi Arabia nexus is driving a fundamental shift in OPEC strategy
Saudi-US energy ties adapt to multipolar world
Saudi Arabia and US relations can construct a new ‘field of dreams’, but opportunism may be the new rules of the game
Opec Saudi Arabia Donald Trump Iran
Derek Brower
Vienna
19 June 2018
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Trump’s spectre looms over tense Opec meeting

Russia and Saudi Arabia plan to raise supply. The move will please the US but make for a rocky summit this week

The Opec+ deal is all but done. A new version may be crafted here in Vienna over the next few days, but the cuts that began at the start of January 2017 and wiped out the global stock excess have run their course. Any new agreement will be designed to preserve a semblance of unity. But more oil is coming—that's been clear since Russia's Vladimir Putin said the oil-price rally had gone too far . Saudi Arabia has reluctantly accepted this. The only questions are how much Opec+ will add and when; whether it will be done officially or on the quiet; and whether it will be enough to compensate for mounting losses elsewhere, or to satisfy Donald Trump. His shadow will hang over the 22 June meeting

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