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Russia’s implausible gas strategy
The country may have the resources, but sanctions and a lack of market access make its gas ambitions look very questionable
OPEC+ keeps more barrels off market in April
A fall in Venezuelan output drives overall production lower, as Saudi Arabia starts to slowly bring more crude to the market
OPEC compliance improves amid market share threat
The surprise decision to bring on extra supply has coincided with better quota conformity from laggards in the group, Petroleum Economist analysis shows
OPEC+ plays with a straight bat
The oil alliance’s decision to keep to the plan amid tightening economic fundamentals seems to have been lost in the global geopolitical maelstrom, misplaced market speculation and haze of conjecture
Hydrocarbon Processing Refining Databook 2025: Europe, Russia & CIS
EU net-zero polices have shifted refining investment among member states, while across the region countries and companies continue to adjust to changes in trade flows caused by the war in Ukraine
Europe faces test of gas resolve
European Commission is on its way to meeting clean energy goals, but energy security concerns and higher costs may give it second thoughts
India’s Russian crude buying has reached its limit
Middle East grades remain a diminished but important part of the South Asian country’s diet, especially as new refining capacity comes online
US goes after Russian gas money, part 2
While Donald Trump’s future sanctions policy is anything but certain, he may use a ‘carrot and stick’ approach to pursue an end to the war in Ukraine, although any changes will not happen overnight
US goes after Russian gas money, part 1
The latest sanctions on Gazprombank and other Russian banks may cause disruption, but willing buyers of Russian energy will find ways to continue payments
Russia reaches for nationalisation
There is a growing impulse to nationalise Russia’s energy sector out of its difficulties, but any steps in this direction would not be taken overnight
Opec Russia
Daniel Crawford
Moscow
25 January 2021
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Russia benefits from standing its ground in oil price grey zone

Saudi sacrifice shows greater appetite for compromise in a price environment that is not win-win for the two Opec+ heavyweights

Saudi Arabia’s decision to sacrifice 1mn bl/d of production share in February and March demonstrated how far further than Moscow the kingdom appears willing to go to keep Opec+ alive. Russia, meanwhile, was appeased by the agreement that it could increase its oil flow by 130,000bl/d over the next two months. It is no secret that keeping the Opec+ alliance together is a greater priority for Riyadh than it is for Moscow. Saudi Arabia may boast the lowest oil production costs in the world. But it needs a much higher oil price to balance its books, with the IMF estimating the country’s fiscal breakeven oil price for 2021 at nearly $68/bl. Russia, which has a more diversified economy, is going in

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The country may have the resources, but sanctions and a lack of market access make its gas ambitions look very questionable

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