Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman
Reading too much into the Saudi capacity ceiling
MbS almost certainly did not mean what oil bulls have convinced themselves he did
A single comment by Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) in an otherwise extensive speech at the US-Arab Summit in Jeddah was enough to electrify the oil market and its observers. After an increase to 13mn bl/d of oil capacity by 2027, “the Kingdom will not have any additional capacity to increase production”, bin Salman said. Bloomberg, The Washington Post and others jumped on this as proof that Opec’s largest producer will quite soon hit its absolute ceiling. Analysts suggested that this would spell trouble for the global economy. Or that, because capex for investment will clearly not be the constraint, the limit must be rooted in geology. This is a substantial over-extrap
Also in this section
5 August 2025
After failed attempts to find a buyer for its stake in Russia’s largest oil producer, BP may be able to avoid the harsh treatment meted out to ExxonMobil and Shell when they exited—and could even restart operations if geopolitical conditions improve
1 August 2025
A number of companies have filed arbitration claims against Gazprom over non-deliveries of contracted gas or other matters—and won. The next step is to collect the award, but this is no easy task
1 August 2025
Europe’s refining sector is desperately trying to adapt to a shifting global energy landscape and nowhere is this more apparent than in its largest economy
1 August 2025
The Middle East natural gas playbook is being rewritten. The fuel source offers the region a pathway to a cleaner, sustainable and affordable means of local power, to fasttrack economic development and as a lucrative opportunity to better monetise its energy resources.
