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Through the oil looking glass
The extent of the US-Israel war with Iran means there will be no going back to the previous market equilibrium no matter how the conflict ends
Do not fear runaway Henry Hub prices
Rising LNG exports and AI-driven power demand have raised concerns that US gas prices could climb sharply, but analysts say abundant shale supply and continued productivity gains should keep Henry Hub within a range that preserves the competitiveness of US LNG
Will policymakers panic before the oil market?
Risks of shortages in oil products may cause world leaders to panic and make mistakes instead of letting the market do what it does best
India taking pole position on oil demand growth
The country’s rapidly expanding economy is boosting its consumption of oil as demand for the fuel slows elsewhere in the world
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
OPEC+ boosted production before crisis
Petroleum Economist analysis sees increases in output from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan among others before region’s murky descent
Trump’s gasoline price pledge paradox
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
Letter from Asia: The nuanced India-Russia oil picture
The South Asian consumer’s next move could tighten the Middle East oil market overnight
A new oil flows playbook
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
Freight rates likely to remain elevated for dirty tankers
Markets Trading
Simon Ferrie
20 March 2023
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Crude tanker market outlook remains strong

Ukraine fallout continues to elevate tanker demand while restricting vessel availability

Freight rates are likely to remain elevated this year for dirty tankers—those vessels primarily used to transport crude—despite wider economic headwinds. The Ukraine invasion forced a shift to longer, less-efficient movement of oil around the world, a pattern that will persist and might become more pronounced. And at the same time, slow fleet growth and illicit activity are also likely to limit tanker availability in 2023 and support freight rates. Last year saw a significant rerouting and reshuffling of global crude flows in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in what Saad Rahim, chief economist at trading house Trafigura, recently termed a “rewiring of the oil markets”. Large volumes

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Through the oil looking glass
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The extent of the US-Israel war with Iran means there will be no going back to the previous market equilibrium no matter how the conflict ends

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