Opec+ mastering art of targeting prices without targeting prices

Two-speed producer group is now nimble enough to make price floor work

Opec messaging could not be any clearer: oil stability has become the codeword for an implied price floor, with Saudi Arabia’s ire constantly aimed at speculators. While some commentators were caught up in the complexities of geopolitical doublespeak to explain Opec+’s surprise voluntary production cut in early April, the reasoning for the 1.66mn bl/d reduction from May through December—which includes a 500,000bl/d cut from Russia—is much simpler: uncertainty over the demand outlook. What is more nuanced is Opec+’s newfound approach. Unshackled by those cartel producers themselves shackled by production constraints, Saudi Arabia and its predominantly Middle Eastern cohorts were able to move