Both have much to lose if energy infrastructure is damaged
Saudi-Iran deal first step to boosting regional oil security prospects
But there is less optimism on additional Iranian exports, and many near-term risks remain
The Chinese-brokered deal to restore relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran may not necessarily prevent regional conflict or unlock additional Iran crude, but analysts believe it improves the long-term security of Saudi oil installations. The move will certainly be remembered as Beijing’s first big breakthrough on the Middle Eastern diplomatic scene. But is also an attempt to safeguard its oil purchases, given that it buys a lot of crude from both Saudi Arabia and Iran—even if much of the volume from the latter is not included in official statistics due to sanctions relating to Tehran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme. As a result, much of Iran’s crude trade takes place on the grey market
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Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
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Turkmenistan is moving ahead with a modest expansion of the giant Galkynysh field to sustain gas deliveries abroad, but persistent delays to other key pipeline projects and geopolitical risks continue to constrain its export ambitions
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Expensive electricity has forced out swathes of energy-intensive industry and now threatens the country’s ability to attract future investment in datacentres and the digital economy
13 April 2026
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
