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Power of Siberia 2: Deal or no deal?
There is a good strategic case for China to sign a deal for gas supplies via the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, but Beijing’s concerns around over-dependence on a single supplier and desire to drive down the price make it relatively unlikely a contract will be finalised this year
China creates two-tier oil dynamic
There is a bifurcation in the global oil market as China’s stockpiling contrasts with reduced inventories elsewhere
A disorderly transition
Last year was one of records for renewables but also for oil, gas and coal, as the energy transition progresses in an increasingly uneven way, according to the Energy Institute’s latest annual report
China’s oil output to scale new heights
New discoveries and stabilisation of legacy fields’ output have helped China reverse the decline and be a top-five producer in recent years
India to help Asia spearhead global refining
Shifting demand patterns leaves most populous nation primed to become downstream leader as China and the West retreat
US, Russia and China circle the Arctic
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
Cheap gas key to unlocking new markets
Weaning poorer regions off coal means gas needs to be abundant and competitive longer term
Do not underplay China’s long-term gas growth narrative
A subdued market amid global trade tensions is just an aberration in gas’ upward trajectory
China’s critical gas position
China will play a huge role in driving gas demand, with its Qatar partnership crucial to this growth amid global structural challenges
Gas may be bridge fuel for centuries
Energy majors argue transition debate has started to factor in the complexities of demand shifts and the wider role for gas
China Supply and demand
Shi Weijun
Shanghai
24 January 2024
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Chinese oil demand growth poised to slow

Demand prospects are limited by decelerating economic expansion following the post-pandemic rebound

China’s oil demand growth is set to slow after a record increase last year, when transportation and petrochemicals demand bounced back as the Chinese economy reopened. But softer economic growth, the normalisation of travel patterns and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) mean the post-pandemic gains will likely fade, moderating demand. China’s oil consumption grew faster than expected in 2023, as the lifting of Covid restrictions unleashed pent-up demand for mobility, particularly domestic air travel. Provisional data indicates Chinese oil demand averaged a new high of 16.4m b/d last year, an increase of 1.7m b/d, or 11.6%, from 2022 that accounted for half of global growth over the same pe

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