Iran and Libya supply fortunes highlight market risks
The impact from Libya’s lost barrels versus the threats to Iranian supply highlight the type of buffer in the oil market and the demand implications
An Israeli attack on Iranian export facilities could mean the loss of around 1.5m bl of medium and heavy sour crude currently going mainly to China. These barrels will be hard to replace compared with Libyan oil, as global light sweet supplies remain abundant. OPEC+ could make up the loss but is unlikely to do so, as the group is interested in supporting prices. China’s inability to easily replace discounted Iranian barrels could also jeopardise its economic recovery. The oil market has demonstrated resilience this year, despite several supply disruptions. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), an average of 1.1m b/d of production was offline in the first eight months
Also in this section
13 April 2026
Turkmenistan is moving ahead with a modest expansion of the giant Galkynysh field to sustain gas deliveries abroad, but persistent delays to other key pipeline projects and geopolitical risks continue to constrain its export ambitions
13 April 2026
Expensive electricity has forced out swathes of energy-intensive industry and now threatens the country’s ability to attract future investment in datacentres and the digital economy
13 April 2026
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
9 April 2026
The April 2026 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
