Oil may not escape a recession
Those who believe a global recession has been avoided may be mistaken, with huge ramifications for the oil market in 2024
The theme for oil demand expectations at the beginning of 2024 is that the US and Chinese economies will prove their resilience and global crude consumption patterns will hit new records. It is a fragile and, arguably, misplaced assumption that could see oil prices slump and OPEC’s market management tested to its limits as supply tries not to overwhelm demand. Oil demand will increase by 1.1m b/d in 2024, according to the IEA. This is 130,000b/d above the agency’s previous estimate as it now assumes a better economic outlook for the US and a soft landing. OPEC echoes this bullishness, with its December oil market report highlighting an increase of 2.2m b/d, which is the same as its November

Also in this section
15 May 2025
Financial problems, lack of exploration success and political dogma cause uncertainty across much of the region
14 May 2025
The invisible hand of the market has seen increasing transparency but much more needs to be done to build a better understanding
13 May 2025
A fall in Venezuelan output drives overall production lower, as Saudi Arabia starts to slowly bring more crude to the market
12 May 2025
With the gas industry’s staunchest advocates and opponents taking brutal blows, the sector looks like treading a path of insipid indifference