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The shadow fleet is the real chokepoint in 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
China’s new oil position
OPEC, upstream investors and refiners all face strategic shifts now the Asian behemoth is no longer the main engine of global oil demand growth
The AI industry’s coming dominance of oil and gas
Tech giants rather than oil majors could soon upend hydrocarbon markets, starting with North America
Canadian producers positioned to ride out the downcycle
The country’s upstream players have demonstrated resilience to low oil prices and are well positioned to prosper despite a volatile market
OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
OPEC+ set to strengthen its hand
The alliance looks to bolster market management credibility by bringing greater clarity and unity to output cuts and producer capacity later in 2026
Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
Venezuela upends global heavy crude market
The ripple effects of US refiners switching to Venezuela grades will be felt from Canada to China and everywhere in between
Oil’s tanker transformation
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, US
Markets Supply and demand
Philip K. Verleger
30 July 2024
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Oil stocks have become truly strategic

Strategic stock releases designed to alleviate price shocks emanating from disruptions came into their own after the Russia crisis

The world has experienced 20 oil market disruptions over the last 50 years. Up until this decade, the maximum price increase was predictable. Supply losses—or fears of losses—caused those holding stocks to hoard and those who needed stocks to bid aggressively, pushing prices up. Over that span, consuming nations had the option to moderate the price impact of disruptions by drawing down strategic stocks. Their leaders ignored such calls until 2022, when a significant release broke the price rise prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In each of the disruptions before 2022, government officials would say the same thing. For example, in 2019, Brian Hook, US special representative for Iran an

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