OPEC headquarters in Vienna
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
In recent years, oil watchers pointed to OPEC+ providing a de facto price floor and US shale a tentative price ceiling. The Vienna-headquartered group seemed keen to defend $70/bl Brent through production cuts in the name of market stability, while prices well above $80/bl seem to spark a fracking bonanza and start to signal demand destruction. That dynamic ended in the summer of 2025 and was replaced by a new set of unwritten rules: oil’s golden triangle. OPEC+ is no stranger to pre-emptive moves. When the alliance’s eight voluntary producers decided to gradually unwind a specific tranche of 2.2m b/d of production cuts, which had been in place since late 2023, many warned of an impending gl
Also in this section
24 February 2026
As Europe marks the fourth anniversary of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, EU efforts to tighten sanctions on Moscow have stalled
24 February 2026
Energy security continues to evolve as a strategic priority amid growing geopolitical tensions highlighted by increased volumes, a new energy law and persistent secrecy
24 February 2026
Sustained low temperatures have depleted storage levels and exposed the EU’s vulnerability to shocks even as the bloc moves ahead with phasing out all Russian imports
23 February 2026
The country’s upstream players have demonstrated resilience to low oil prices and are well positioned to prosper despite a volatile market
