Letter from the Middle East: Iran-Israel war risks dire straits

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have reverberations that would sound around the world

Now that the US has joined Israel’s war against Iran, markets are beginning to price in what was once considered a remote geopolitical risk: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway—just 21 nautical miles at its narrowest point—carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and more than one-third of global LNG trade. Any credible threat to it would constitute a supply shock of global proportions, with few ready-made contingencies. Iranian officials routinely threaten to block the strait during periods of heightened regional stress. Two members of the country’s parliament, as well as a senior officer in the Islamic Republican Guard—presumably speaking with official approval—re