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OPEC+ off-target in July
The producers’ group missed its output increase target for the month and may soon face a critical test of its strategy
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The quick, unified and decisive strategy to return all the barrels from the hefty tranche of cuts from the eight producers involved in voluntary curbs signals a shift and sets the tone for the path ahead
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Trump’s Russia threat rings hollow
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The site of an old tin mine in Cornwall
Opinion
US Markets
Philip K. Verleger
Denver
7 February 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Letter from the US: Oil’s tin problem

The history of tin production and prices offers a preview of the future oil market. If correct, $35/bl could become the new normal for crude for several years without further OPEC+ intervention

Tin producers were cosseted for decades through the International Tin Agreement (ITA) between them and consumers. The ITA was one of the commodity price stabilisation programmes that grew out of the 1944 Bretton Woods pact that established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The agreement included the creation of the International Tin Council to oversee the stabilisation effort. Funds were provided to the council to build buffer stocks that could then be added to or sold off to keep prices stable. The ITA failed spectacularly in 1985 when the ITC did not meet margin calls to cover its positions on the London Metal Exchange as tin prices plummeted by 60%. The oil industr

Also in this section
OPEC+ off-target in July
8 August 2025
The producers’ group missed its output increase target for the month and may soon face a critical test of its strategy
The great OPEC+ reset
7 August 2025
The quick, unified and decisive strategy to return all the barrels from the hefty tranche of cuts from the eight producers involved in voluntary curbs signals a shift and sets the tone for the path ahead
Latest EU sanctions largely toothless
7 August 2025
Without US backing, the EU’s newest sanctions package against Russia—though not painless—is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s oil and gas revenues or its broader economy
A third distillate disruption
6 August 2025
Diesel market disruptions have propelled crude prices above $100/bl twice in this century, and now oil teeters on the brink of another crude quality crisis

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